Bellwether · real money · Phase 1

Nitro

refreshed 2026-09-03 18:46 UTC · auto-refresh 60s
ON — SHADOW
rail OFF: measuring only, no real orders
decay rail: win 57% vs break-even 72% · reconcile: clean · entry window 3–6h · band 0.15–0.40
Real cash
$4,485.09
verified each cycle vs Kalshi
Open real / shadow
0 / 2
$0.00 real at risk
Floor cushion
$2,185.09
halts at $2,300 (floor $2,000)
Real record
+$585.35
385 settled real trades

Last 7 days

DayEntriesClosesWinsP&L
2026-08-3112 shadow1/2−$16.02
2026-08-3011 shadow1/1+$10.17
2026-08-2911 shadow0/1−$46.25
2026-08-2822 shadow2/2+$57.22
2026-08-2722 shadow1/2−$14.41

Open positions

TickerContractsCostKindOpened (UTC)
KXBRENTD-26SEP0317-T96.5048$30.24shadow2026-09-03 15:31
KXBRENTD-26SEP0317-T9760$48.00shadow2026-09-03 15:31

Recent entries

Time (UTC)KindTickerReason
2026-09-03 15:31shadowKXBRENTD-26SEP0317-T96.50decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.37 buy NO@0.63 x48 (amplifie
2026-09-03 15:31shadowKXBRENTD-26SEP0317-T97decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.20 buy NO@0.80 x60 (amplifie
2026-09-03 15:20shadowKXBRENTD-26SEP0317-T97decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.39 buy NO@0.61 x53 (amplifie
2026-09-02 01:55shadowKXAAAGASD-26SEP02-4.1200decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.30 buy NO@0.70 x69 (book-cap
2026-09-01 15:49shadowKXBRENTD-26SEP0117-T93decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.30 buy NO@0.70 x48 (amplifie
2026-09-01 00:06shadowKXNETFLIXRANKMOVIE-26AUG31-WHIdecay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.15 buy NO@0.85 x75 (book-cap
2026-08-31 15:37shadowKXBRENTD-26AUG3117-T91.50decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.17 buy NO@0.83 x63 (amplifie
2026-08-30 22:00shadowKXAAAGASDTX-26AUG31-3.5950decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.38 buy NO@0.62 x41 (amplifie
2026-08-29 22:01shadowKXAAAGASD-26AUG30-4.0800decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.13 buy NO@0.87 x83 (book-cap
2026-08-28 22:17shadowKXAAAGASD-26AUG29-4.0800decay rail OFF (trailing win rate <= break-even) | fade YES@0.20 buy NO@0.80 x57 (book-cap